Climate Change as a Non-Traditional Security Threat in South Asia: Implications for Water Security and Regional Stability

Abstract

This study examines climate change as a non-traditional security threat in South Asia, analysing its implications for water security and regional stability. South Asia ranks among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, heavily reliant on Hindu Kush– Himalayan glacial systems and monsoon rainfall. Rising temperatures, erratic monsoon patterns, accelerated glacial melt, and increasing extreme weather events are intensifying water insecurity, with cascading effects on interstate tensions, internal political stability, and forced migration. A quantitative survey design was employed, collecting data from 310 respondents across South Asian countries using a structured Likert-scale questionnaire. Statistical analyses included normality testing, reliability assessment, construct validity, correlation, and multiple regression. All climate change variables demonstrated significant positive relationships with water insecurity and regional instability. Water security emerged as a critical mediating variable, and transboundary water governance served as a significant moderator in the climate– stability nexus. Policymakers should prioritise adaptive water management, strengthen transboundary governance frameworks, and promote regional cooperation to effectively mitigate the destabilising impacts of climate variability in South Asia.