Implications of US-China Competition in the South China Sea for Regional Security: A Multidimensional Analysis (2013–2024)

Abstract

The construction of China’s artificial islands between 2013 and 2018 resulted in over 3200 acres of land militarization with runways and missiles. The US actions included the revival of the Quad in 2017 and AUKUS in 2021 and defence agreements with the Philippines. These incidents escalated like the 2023 conflicts over Second Thomas Shoal, with power transition theory indicating future escalations as China asserts its challenge to US supremacy. The research shows that current territorial claims are a result of selective historical understandings due to power struggles between China and the US. The results demonstrated that China's pursuit of strategic depth and its historical claims have driven the United States to balance against China while China has responded with persistent gray zone activities that stopped short of outright war. The article presents economic interdependence as an important factor that now enjoys restricted capacity to stop political and normative divisions between countries. The data for this qualitative research used for analysis came from trade flows between countries and maritime.